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  • Writer's pictureSebastian Torres

Total vs Modeled CRE Lending Numbers

Forecasts aren't generally worth a whole lot but I like this one because I agree with it...half joking.

The Mortgage Bankers Association chart of the week from last week identifies the total vs modeled CRE lending numbers over the past 20 years and assumptions for the next few years.

The expectation for the end of this year is that 2023 origination volumes ($442 billion) will come in at about half of what they were in 2022 ($816 billion).

Based on the chart, 2024 looks choppy with the back half starting to pick up. 2025 is when we see some real growth.

I have no idea if this is how it will truly go but it is a good educated guess. It's also a friendly reminder that real estate is cyclical and transactions will come back!

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